Express Entry draws have been more unpredictable than ever. This has been mostly observed since after the pandemic. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the draws would be held at a frequency of every 2 weeks or so. However, lately, mostly since the introduction of Category-based Express Entry draws , they have become completely unpredictable.
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Express Entry Draws: Why have they been unpredictable?
As mentioned above, IRCC has become quite unpredictable in conducting draws. Before the pandemic, they used to come out on an average interval of 2 weeks, and mostly on Wednesdays.
They used to send out more than 3,000 invitations for Canada PR and the average CRS cut-off remained about 470 points. Back then, the application backlog was even smaller and more manageable, as IRCC used to process about 80% of applications within 6 months or so, according to its standard time.
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But lately, no one can tell when the next draw might happen or if any draw will occur in a month. It is also hard to predict the number of invitations issued. Basically, the recurring pattern of draws taking place has completely changed.
If we look at 2023 for instance, draws were occurring frequently up until June. Since then, the whole routine of draws has been off. It was also because IRCC introduced category-based selection at the end of May.
The concept of Category-based draw was basically to prioritize the occupations or categories that were facing much labor shortages.
The last Express Entry draw was held on 26th October 2023, which was a category based draw, and since then, no draw has been held.
Will IRCC hold a draw in December?
From our analysis of previous Express Entry draw trends, it’s hard to say for certain whether there would be a draw or not. Last year, IRCC paused draws from 23rd November 2022 and only continued it in the subsequent year, from 11th January 2023.
Express Entry draws are basically held to invite more immigrants and grant them permanent residence, if they meet the eligibility criteria. So, if Canada needs to fulfill its labor shortages, and grow its economy, it should hold draws frequently.
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