It may be predicted that IRCC will likely hold the next Express Entry draw on 30 (Tuesday) or 31 (Wednesday) January 2024. This is based on the 280 Express Entry held on a Tuesday. However, based on the history of draws, it is seen that most of them are conducted on Wednesdays. Hence, one can predict that the draws might be held on one of the two days.
Express Entry Draws: How they were held in the past few months
Though it has become quite hard to predict when the next Express Entry might be held, one can still make a vague assumption and might hit the bullseye. For the past two months, draws have been behaving quite chaotic.
In December and January alone, it invited 17,595 candidates for Canadian permanent residency. And keep in mind that January is still going on and another draw might be held in a day or two.
On the other hand, 0 candidates were invited through Express Entry in November. This is as chaotic as it can get, or IRCC might surprise us again and drop another bomb just like it did with the arrival of the Category-based Express Entry draw .
In December, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) invited 15,045 candidates throughout the seven draws it conducted. The majority of these draws were targeted towards the category-based selection while only two out of the seven were general draws.
But that’s not all. A considerable drop in the CRS cut-off was seen whenever the category-based selection happened.
Check out the table below for reference.
| Draw No. | Draw Date | ITAs Issued | CRS cut-off | Draw Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280 | 23 Jan | 1,040 | 543 | General Draw |
| 279 | 10 Jan | 1,510 | 546 | General Draw |
| 278 | 21 Dec | 400 | 386 | Agriculture and agri-food occupations Draw |
| 277 | 20 Dec | 670 | 435 | Transport occupations Draw |
| 276 | 19 Dec | 1,000 | 425 | Trade occupations Draw |
| 275 | 18 Dec | 1,325 | 542 | General Draw Draw |
| 274 | 8 Dec | 5,900 | 481 | STEM occupations Draw |
| 273 | 7 Dec | 1,000 | 470 | French language proficiency Draw |
| 272 | 6 Dec | 4,750 | 561 | General Draw |
This leads to one assumption; category-based draws are favored by IRCC.
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Which occupations will likely be targeted in the upcoming draws?
Canada is turning its attention from inviting candidates through all programs to target them on the basis of their occupation mostly.
This is clearly seen in the way IRCC has been favoring category-based draws over the general ones. Conducting more of them and that too on a lower CRS requirement is a clear indication that if your occupation falls in one of the categories, you have a higher chance of being invited next.
IRCC set six categories under the Category-Based Selection to be given special attention. This is so because the labor market of Canada requires these occupations to be filled with required workers. The categories selected are:
- STEM Occupations
- Healthcare Occupations
- Trade Occupations
- Transport Occupations
- Agriculture and Agri-Food Occupations
- French language proficiency
The labor shortage in these occupations has made them highly in demand. Moreover, these categories are set to change each year based on the labor market reports.
So, if your occupation falls in any one of these categories, the chances of you receiving an ITA increase.
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